The New Scramble for Africa: Rare Earths, Green Tech & a Geoeconomic Chessboard

By Wolf Street Economics
Serious Economics. No Hype. Just Signals.


A New Kind of Scramble




A century ago, the "Scramble for Africa" evoked colonial conquest; a dark period defined by occupation, exploitation, and boundary lines drawn with no regard for the continent itself. Today, a new scramble is underway. But, this time, it's not for land. It's for the minerals embedded beneath it; the critical inputs powering the green transition and the geopolitics of the 21st century.

Cobalt. Lithium. Rare earths. Manganese. Graphite. These aren't just resources. They're leverage. And Africa is central to the global supply of all of them.


The Stakes: Energy, Defence, Technology

Every major industrial transition in history has been resource-driven. Today is no different.




Electric vehicles require cobalt and lithium. Wind turbines need rare earth magnets. Smartphones, solar panels, defence systems, all depend on a reliable supply of niche minerals. And while the West debates decoupling and strategic autonomy, it's Africa that holds the key to the mineral future.

Consider this:
  • The Democratic Republic of the Congo produces over 70% of the world's cobalt.
  • Zimbabwe is emerging as a critical lithium hub.
  • Angola is exploring large-scale rare earth extraction.
  • Namibia and South Africa are rich in manganese, platinum group metals, and vanadium.
No serious conversation about the energy transition or defence resilience can exclude the continent.


China: Two Decades Ahead

While the U.S. and EU have only recently begun to mobilise policy around critical minerals, China has spent the last twenty years executing a coherent strategy. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, bilateral infrastructure deals, and strategic investments, Chinese state-owned enterprises have secured dominant positions across Africa's mining sector.

In the DRC alone, Chinese companies now control over half of all industrial cobalt production. And it's not just raw extraction. China has helped finance and construct the railways, smelters, and ports needed to move materials from mine to magnet.




The result is vertical integration; not just resource access, but control over the entire value chain.

This has geopolitical consequences. While Western firms compete for contracts, China's model embeds strategic depth: fewer middlemen, faster turnaround, and tighter state support. It's not just economic; it's structural.


The Western Response: Late, Fragmented, Necessary

The West is waking up, but slowly.

The U.S. has passed domestic legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act, and the Defense Production Act, to encourage critical mineral development. But, most of these incentives are inward-looking. Africa requires external engagement, long-term partnerships, and infrastructure finance.

Some progress is happening. The U.S. has partnered with Zambia and the DRC to develop a regional battery corridor. The EU has signed raw material agreements with Namibia. Japan, Australia, and Canada are involved through the Minerals Security Partnership. But, much of this remains in the planning phase. And, unlike China's state-led financing model, the Western approach is dependent on private capital and project risk mitigation, a slower game.


African Governments Are No Longer Passive




The biggest shift in this scramble? African leaders are negotiating. They want value retention, not just extraction. Zimbabwe has banned raw lithium exports. Namibia is developing a green hydrogen industrial corridor. Zambia has made clear that it won't be a staging ground for the mineral supply chains of other countries; it wants processing and jobs to stay local.



In short, the continent is asserting agency. It's leveraging its position in global markets to demand more equitable terms. And it's forcing outside actors, China included, to adapt.


A Chessboard, Not a Battlefield




What we're witnessing isn't conquest. It's positioning. A geoeconomic chessboard where each move counts.

China brings speed, alignment, and coordination. The West brings capital, transparency, and ESG standards. African governments are choosing, often selectively, between models. Some are playing both sides. Some are pushing back on both.

But the clock is ticking.

The transition to net-zero economies depends on new supply chains. Defence procurement depends on secure sourcing. And the world's ability to reach these goals, economically, sustainably, geopolitically, will hinge on decisions being made right now in Lusaka, Kinshasa, Luanda, and Lilongwe.


Final Thought: Look South

If you want to understand where the future is being built, don't just follow Wall Street or Shenzhen. Follow the minerals. Follow the infrastructure. Follow the deals.

Africa is not just rich in resources; it's rich in leverage. And in this new scramble, no one moves without it.


Wolf Street Economics
Next Week: What China's Mineral Strategy Tells Us About the Endgame of Geoeconomics

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