What China's Mineral Strategy Tells Us About the Endgame of Geoeconomics

Wolf Street Economics

Serious Economics. No Hype. Just Signals


The Quiet Chessboard of Power

Rare earth elements. Lithium. Cobalt. Graphite. These aren’t just ingredients for smartphones or electric vehicles — they’re the quiet backbone of the modern global economy, and increasingly, they’re the front lines of geopolitical confrontation. The story of China’s mineral dominance is no longer a footnote in trade discussions. It is the strategic playbook for a world where power is not only military or financial, but deeply material. 



Geoeconomics Isn’t Just About Money 

The U.S. once defined power through the dollar, through markets, and through military alliances. But China’s economic rise is telling a different story — one that emphasises physical control over supply chains, bottlenecks, and resource leverage. This is not just trade policy. This is mineral-centric statecraft, and it’s happening in slow motion, with tectonic consequences. 


China’s Rare Earth Weaponisation

When Trump imposed tariffs and sanctioned Chinese tech giants, Beijing didn’t need to fire back with weapons. Instead, it quietly restricted exports of rare earth elements like gallium and germanium — obscure but irreplaceable metals used in advanced semiconductors and defence systems. This wasn’t just a tit-for-tat. It was a flex. And it worked. It reminded Washington and Brussels that control over critical inputs is as powerful as control over markets.


The Scramble to Catch Up

In response, the U.S. has tried to diversify supply chains. It’s funded domestic mines, rebooted processing plants, and poured resources into African and South American diplomacy. Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act was filled with incentives for “friend-shoring” of key materials. But the lead time is long. The gap is wide. And the U.S. knows it.


Africa’s New Role in the Great Game

China built its mineral strategy over decades — securing deals in the Democratic Republic of Congo, building roads and infrastructure in return for exclusive mining rights, and funding refining capacity within its borders. Now, the U.S. is playing catch-up. Its renewed push for peace between Rwanda and the DRC isn’t just diplomacy — it’s desperation. If you can’t beat China in refining, you try to wrest control of the mines instead.

“You don’t need to build an empire if you can control what the empire needs.”


The Endgame of Geoeconomics

This is what the endgame of geoeconomics looks like: no bullets, no bombs — just dominance through indispensable resources. Strategic minerals are now as valuable as bases or aircraft carriers. Supply chains are now battlegrounds. And China holds many of the cards that matter.

In 2025 and beyond, the question is not whether America and its allies can "decouple" from China — it’s whether they can afford not to. The answer may lie buried beneath Congo’s soil, refined in a plant outside Shanghai, and shipped silently through invisible trade routes that now define global power.

Wolf Street Economics

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