Wolf Street Economics

By Wolf Street Economics Serious Economics. No Hype. Just Signals. For much of the 21st century, the conversation around critical minerals has orbited one gravitational force: China. Its control over rare earths, graphite, lithium, and more has been not just an economic asset, but a geostrategic weapon, wielded with increasing confidence, from export bans to tariffs to opaque supply chains. But something quiet is happening in the background. Three nations, India, Brazil, and Indonesia, are stepping forward with a different model. Not to confront China head-on, but to diversify the map, loosen dependencies, and rewire the value chains of the mineral economy. Their moves are deliberate, not dramatic. And that's precisely why they matter. India: Strategic Patience, Global Reach India is building a strategy of partnerships. It's reaching across the world, from South America to Africa to Australia, to ink long-term supply deals, particularly for lithium, copper, and cobalt. But it...

Wolf Street Economics Serious Economics. No Hype. Just Signals The Quiet Chessboard of Power Rare earth elements. Lithium. Cobalt. Graphite. These aren’t just ingredients for smartphones or electric vehicles — they’re the quiet backbone of the modern global economy, and increasingly, they’re the front lines of geopolitical confrontation. The story of China’s mineral dominance is no longer a footnote in trade discussions. It is the strategic playbook for a world where power is not only military or financial, but deeply material.  Geoeconomics Isn’t Just About Money  The U.S. once defined power through the dollar, through markets, and through military alliances. But China’s economic rise is telling a different story — one that emphasises physical control over supply chains, bottlenecks, and resource leverage. This is not just trade policy. This is mineral-centric statecraft, and it’s happening in slow motion, with tectonic consequences.  China’s Rare Earth Weaponisation Whe...

By Wolf Street Economics Serious Economics. No Hype. Just Signals. Introduction The future of money is no longer hypothetical; it's happening, now. Over 100 countries are actively researching or deploying Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). These state-backed digital assets are reshaping payments, cross-border trade, and financial sovereignty. But, in a sweeping move earlier this year, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order banning the development of a digital dollar. Supporters framed it as a defence of liberty. Critics say it's a self-inflicted wound that could compromise America's financial leadership. So, what does this decision really mean: for the U.S. economy, for the dollar, and for America's place in the world? Let's break it down. What the Ban Does On 23 January 2025, Donald Trump issued an executive order that: Prohibits the Federal Reserve and Treasury from launching or developing a Central Bank Digital Currency. Establishes a digit...

By Wolf Street Economics Serious Economics. No Hype. Just Signals. A New Kind of Scramble A century ago, the "Scramble for Africa" evoked colonial conquest; a dark period defined by occupation, exploitation, and boundary lines drawn with no regard for the continent itself. Today, a new scramble is underway. But, this time, it's not for land. It's for the minerals embedded beneath it; the critical inputs powering the green transition and the geopolitics of the 21st century. Cobalt. Lithium. Rare earths. Manganese. Graphite. These aren't just resources. They're leverage. And Africa is central to the global supply of all of them. The Stakes: Energy, Defence, Technology Every major industrial transition in history has been resource-driven. Today is no different. Electric vehicles require cobalt and lithium. Wind turbines need rare earth magnets. Smartphones, solar panels, defence systems, all depend on a reliable supply of niche minerals. And while the West debate...

Published by Wolf Street Economics Serious Economics. No Hype. Just Signals A Soundbite and a Signal Donald Trump's recent declaration, in the context of his dramatic tariffs, "The United States wants nothing from China," made for a great headline. It was the kind of line tailored for the MAGA audience, a social media loop, or a populist narrative that paints U.S. self-reliance as already complete. But, behind that soundbite, something else was unfolding. At the same time, in the hushed corridors of a London hotel, senior American and Chinese officials were meeting to discuss an urgent matter: rare earth minerals. These talks weren't about broad tariffs or currency manipulation. They were about the industrial minerals at the heart of the 21st-century economy, and the deep dependency that still binds the United States to China. This isn't a story of decoupling. It's a story of entanglement, contradiction, and geopolitical theatre layered over logistical depende...

Published by Wolf Street Economics Serious Economics. No Hype. Just Signals. Why did the U.S. freeze Russia's central bank reserves? Why did China hit Australia's wine exports with a 200% tariff? And why is the U.S. banning AI chips to China? These aren't just trade disputes or diplomatic spats. This is geoeconomics, the modern battlefield where money, not missiles, is the primary weapon. What Exactly Is Geoeconomics? Coined by strategist Edward Luttwak in the early 1990s, geoeconomics refers to the use of economic instruments, like trade, finance, currency, and technology, as tools of national power. If geopolitics is war by other means, geoeconomics is peace by coercion. It's the merger of markets and strategy; where sanctions, supply chains, export bans, and tariffs serve the same role as aircraft carriers once did. Tools of the Geoeconomics Arsenal Governments today use an expanding toolkit to exert pressure or project power: Sanctions and financial blockades Tariff...